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This Saturday, the UFC finally gets its rightful debut on network TV. Despite having a FOX event last year, that was more of a special event, with this card serving as the real debut card on FOX. Featuring two title eliminator bouts, as well as a bout to determine who will be next in line in the title picture, the main card offers a good look into the future of the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions. The preliminary card features an abundance of great fighters and great fights in its own right, and should not be overlooked. Fans of the sport will be treated to great fights this Saturday, and here's the way I see things going down.
Preliminary Card - Live on Facebook
Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi (15-5) vs Dustin Jacoby (6-1)
Camozzi enters the cage this Saturday fighting for his job. Being released from the promotion last year, then brought back only to lose again, his back is against the wall. Jacoby might be in the same boat, looking absolutely horrid in his fight against a late replacement in Clifford Starks in his last fight. I don't like to be negative about fighters, but neither of these men seem to have what it takes to hang in the UFC.
That being said, Camozzi is more experienced, and from what I've seen, a whole hell of a lot tougher. I expect Camozzi to take Jacoby down, and start Saturday's card off in a slow fashion.
Chris Camozzi defeats Dustin Jacoby via unanimous decision.
Preliminary Card - Live on FUEL TV
Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson (9-6) vs Shane Roller (10-5)
Johnson is a good wrestler. GSP's first pick on The Ultimate Fighter 12, he managed to make it to the finals before being defeated by Jonathan Brookins. Roller has had mixed success in the cage, absolutely blasting Thiago Tavares out of nowhere, before suffering a similar fate at the hands of Melvin Guillard.
The issue I see here with Johnson is that he all too often finds himself on the losing end of a submission, with five of his losses that way. Roller has yet to be decisioned, and that is the likely way Johnson would win this fight, and I don't see that happening. Expect Roller to get a choke either during a scramble, or from his back.
Shane Roller defeats Michael Johnson via submission - round one.
Featherweight bout: Charles Oliveira (14-2 1 NC) vs Eric Wisely (19-6)
"Do Bronx" is a considerable favorite in this fight, and with good reason. Despite suffering two losses in the UFC, to Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone, no one is underestimating the potential Oliveira possesses. Wisely, a one-time Strikeforce fighter, has not faced much, if any, higher level competition, and this fight is a huge step-up for him.
Expect Oliveira to look like he's on another level in this fight. His superior striking and grappling should guide him to a relatively easy victory.
Charles Oliveira defeats Eric Wisely via submission - round two.
Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson (15-5) vs George Roop (12-8)
Roop is on an upswing in his career. Despite his controversial decision loss to Hatsu Hioki, he has looked phenomenal in his last couple of fights. Swanson is entertaining as all hell. Perhaps best known for his completely embarrassing loss to Jose Aldo, the Jackson's fighter has found proved his toughness in recent contests, going 2-2 in his last four.
With a significant reach advantage, and seemingly coming into his own as a fighter, I expect Roop to punish Swanson throughout this fight, and continue to shock people with how much he really has improved. While I don't see him stopping Swanson, I wouldn't be surprised if he did. That said,
George Roop defeats Cub Swanson via unanimous decision.
Heavyweight bout: Joey Beltran (13-6) vs Lavar Johnson (15-5)
The first of the heavyweight imports from Strikeforce's soon-to-be-dissolved division, Johnson is on a two-fight skid, and faces a tough test in his UFC debut. Beltran, a gritty brawler with a sweet moustache, hasn't faired too well as of late himself. The "Mexicutioner" has managed to only rack up one win in his last four.
On paper, this fight looks to be a slugfest. Both men have the power to finish the fight, both men have the chins to prevent that from happening. Beltran has shown that when flustered, he can take the fight to the ground, and based on that alone, I expect Beltran to win a three round decision full of sloppy striking and sub-par grappling.
Joey Beltran defeats Lavar Johnson via unanimous decision.
Heavyweight bout: Mike Russow (14-1) vs John Olav Einemo (6-2)
Russow hasn't lost a fight in nearly five years. His lone loss came at the hands of his opponent's teammate, Sergei Kharitonov. Russow proved in his last fights that he has a hell of a chin, and can never be counted out. Einemo recently returned to MMA after a five-year hiatus, suffering a defeat at the hands of Dave Herman, in a bonus winning effort. Einemo is an exceptional grappler who doesn't lack in the striking department either.
This fight was a hard one for me to pick. Einemo excels in the grappling department, whereas Russow doesn't really excel anywhere. When it comes down to it, I can't pick against Russow. His grit and determination, combined with his striking, should be enough to put Einemo in a bad place. The law enforcement officer should be celebrating with his comrades later that night in his favourite local bar. The Chicago native takes this and the places goes wild.
Mike Russow defeats John Olav Einemo via TKO - round three.
Lightweight bout: Evan Dunham (12-2) vs Nik Lentz (21-4-2)
Dunham was undefeated in his first eleven fights, and by all means, it should have been twelve. Suffering back-to-back losses to Sean Sherk in a highly contested decision, and a TKO loss to Melvin Guillard, Dunham bounced back with an easy decision victory over Shamar Bailey. "The Carny" Lentz, is 4-1 with one no contest, in his last six fights. His most recent loss to Mark Bocek was his first official loss since 2007.
This fight to me, spells trouble for Lentz. A good fighter, this is a terrible match-up for him, in my opinion. Dunham is a great grappler, with good striking. Look for Dunham to beat Lentz up, shut him down on the ground, and likely sink in a submission or grind him out to a decision.
Evan Dunham defeats Nik Lentz via submission - round three.
Main Card - Live on FOX
Middleweight bout: Demian Maia (15-3) vs Chris Weidman (7-0)
Maia is a grappling ace, no doubt about that. Only losing to Mark Munoz, Nate Marquardt, and Anderson Silva, Maia is still at the top of the middleweight division. The undefeated Weidman is coming in on short notice, taking on the toughest test of his career. Weidman is a powerful wrestler with many ways to secure victory.
If Maia comes in 100%, as I expect he will, he should be able to change the zero in Weidman's record to a one. I expect Weidman to use his powerful wrestling to take this fight to the ground, and he has stated he believes he can submit Maia. I believe that his confidence will be his downfall, as Maia will sink in a slick submission and take the victory home.
Demian Maia defeats Chris Weidman via submission - round one.
Co-Main Event: Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping (22-3) vs Chael Sonnen (26-11-1)
I never wish ill-will on any fighters, but Mark Munoz's injury gave the fans the fight that should have been made in the first place. Michael Bisping steps in on late notice to take on the surging, uncrowned middleweight champion, Chael Sonnen. Bisping, a great striker, who for the most part lacks knockout power, looks for his fifth straight win, and his shot at Anderson Silva. Sonnen, a former title challenger, who was well on his way to beating the #1 fighter in the world before his fifth round submission loss, also looks for his shot at Silva.
I see this fight going one of two ways. Bisping will look to work his superior boxing, but get taken down and pounded on for five minutes, three times, or, Sonnen will take Bisping down from the start, and pound on him for five minutes, three times. I'm not one to count "The Count" out of a fight, but having only fought last month, and having trained for an entirely different type of fighter up until two weeks ago, Sonnen will be too much to handle for the Brit. Barring some miracle submission with one minute left in the third, Sonnen should take this and have a date with Anderson Silva this summer in Brazil.
Chael Sonnen defeats Michael Bisping via unanimous decision.
Main Event: Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans (16-1-1) vs Phil Davis (9-0)
